By Mark Buckshon
Ottawa Construction News staff writer
Ottawa’s housing market, recovering from a post-pandemic slump, faces uncertainties in 2025 as the region navigates political and economic challenges in both Canada and the US, said speakers at the annual Hello 2025/Goodbye 2024 Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) gathering last Thursday (Feb. 6).
The event featured presentations from industry experts, including Cheryl Rice from PMA Brethour Realty Group and David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, who shed light on the market’s past performance, current trends, and future outlook.
Rice, president of PMA Ottawa, provided a comprehensive review of Ottawa’s 2024 housing market, highlighting its resilience in the face of economic challenges.
“The resale market has been on a roller coaster ride in recent years,” Rice said, “but in 2024, Ottawa’s resale market bounced back, breaking a two-year decline with over 13,500 homes sold, up nearly 12% from 2023.” She attributed this rebound to a combination of factors, including pent-up demand, increased affordability due to lower interest rates, and innovative builder incentives.
Rice also acknowledged the challenges that persist in the market, particularly the ongoing housing supply shortage. “Residential supply has been on a downward trend since 2015,” she noted, “dropping from about 3,800 homes to a little under 1,300 in 2021.”
She emphasized the need for continued efforts to address key barriers to development, such as long approval processes and high development charges, echoing concerns addressed at an earlier GOHBA event where Ottawa mayor Mark Sutcliffe was the speaker.
Looking ahead to 2025, Rice acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the market, particularly the potential impact of a trade war with the US and the possibility of a recession. “There’s a lot going on here in Canada, for sure,” she said, and “there’s also a lot of changes happening south of the border that are deeply concerning.”
However, she remained optimistic about Ottawa’s ability to weather these challenges, saying: “Ottawa is going into this period from a position of strength. Our full recovery may be delayed, but the market will come back.”
David Coletto, in his presentation, provided a broader perspective, examining the national economic and political landscape and its potential impact on the housing market. He described a “scarcity mindset” among Canadians, driven by rising costs of living, housing affordability concerns, and a sense of uncertainty about the future.
“The last five years have been incredibly unprecedented in terms of the sheer number of events that have happened,” he said.
Coletto elaborated on the consequences of this scarcity mindset.
“It drives us to zero-sum thinking,” where individuals feel they must defend what they have or fight to get what they need. He highlighted the impact of this mindset on various aspects of Canadian society, from labor relations to political preferences, noting a growing sense of frustration and anxiety among Canadians.
Despite the challenges, Coletto saw opportunities for the housing industry. He emphasized the need to address the housing supply shortage and make it easier to build homes.
“We have to build more homes,” he urged. “We have to build them more quickly.” He also stressed the importance of engaging with the public and addressing their concerns about affordability and accessibility.
Coletto concluded his presentation with a call to action/
“This is a huge opportunity to drive an agenda that forces municipalities to make it easier to build homes, to reduce red tape and cost of doing business.”
He emphasized the need for collaboration and innovation in the housing industry to navigate the uncertainties of 2025 and beyond.
The event concluded with observations from Tanya Buckley from Cardel CanadaMmanagement Ltd., who spoke about the challenges of women making their way in the building industry. She urged men to take on the role of mentors as the need for women to enter the skilled trades and related professions will be even greater in upcoming years as immigration is curtailed.
