Ottawa Construction News staff writer
Ottawa is entering a prolonged period of sustained growth that will see its population climb to 1.68 million by 2051, driven largely by international migration and a shifting demographic landscape that will reshape the city’s housing and infrastructure needs.
In a joint meeting Wednesday, the city’s Planning and Housing Committee and Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee recommended Council adopt these updated population, household, and employment projections. The data will serve as the foundation for the upcoming update to Ottawa’s Official Plan, a critical document that dictates where and how the city grows.
The new figures paint a picture of a city expanding faster than its historical average.
According to the report, Ottawa’s population is projected to increase by approximately 530,000 residents from its 2024 level of 1.15 million. This represents an average growth of 19,600 people per year.
“Population growth will be driven primarily by migration, particularly international immigration,” city staff noted in the report.
The projections also highlight a significant demographic shift toward an older population, which will place increased pressure on health care, transit, and community services. This aging demographic is also influencing housing demand.
Housing and employment surge
To accommodate this population boom, the number of households in Ottawa is expected to grow by nearly 700,000 by 2051, up from just over 400,000 in 2021. The rate of household growth is projected to be six per cent higher over the next 25 years compared to the previous quarter-century.
This demand is driven not only by new residents but also by smaller household sizes as the population ages and younger adults delay forming their own households due to affordability challenges.
On the economic front, employment is forecast to reach 994,600 jobs by 2051, an increase of approximately 325,000 from 2024 levels. The report suggests this growth reflects Ottawa’s enduring role as a major economic and institutional hub, with unemployment expected to remain relatively low.
Implications for construction and land use
For the construction and development industry, these numbers are the precursors to significant policy decisions. Following Council’s expected adoption of the projections on Feb. 25, city staff will update the Growth Management Strategy.
This strategy will determine if the city currently has enough land within its existing urban boundary and villages to house the projected population. If the analysis finds a deficit, the city will need to identify new areas for future development—a process that often sparks intense debate over urban sprawl versus intensification.
Development approvals move forward
Beyond the long-term forecasts, the Planning and Housing Committee also greenlit several immediate residential projects on Wednesday aimed at addressing the city’s current housing crunch.
- Heron Gate: Zoning was approved for a 160-townhome development northwest of Conroy Road and St. Laurent Boulevard. The plan includes a small park and rezoning to facilitate future development facing Walkley Road.
- Cyrville: A 43-unit, four-storey apartment building was approved for Snow Street, east of Cummings Avenue. The site will be rezoned from Residential Third Density to Fourth Density to allow for the low-rise apartment structure.
- Queenswood Heights: A 30-unit, three-storey apartment building was approved northwest of Tenth Line Road and des Épinettes Avenue. The amendment changes the zoning to General Mixed-Use, permitting a wider range of building types and reducing required parking rates.
Tracking the housing pledge
These approvals come as the city races to meet its provincial pledge of enabling 151,000 new homes by 2031.
According to the city’s housing approvals dashboard, Council has approved more than 68,650 new homes between January 2023 and the end of 2025. This puts the city at roughly 45 per cent of its 2031 target.
“If Council approves the land-use permissions that the Committee recommended today, applicants will be able to build another 233 new dwellings,” the committee noted. Since the start of 2026 alone, the committee estimates it has enabled the development of about 313 new dwellings.
City Council will vote on the committee’s recommendations on Feb. 25.
